One of Guiliani’s strengths is his focus on national security. And, if a re-analysis of the 2004 election holds true, that should play to his favor. Persily said moral values’ voters were important, but postelection studies showed that issues such as abortion, same-sex marriage, and stem cell research did not influence the election as much as originally portrayed, and will have an even smaller impact in 2008.

That leaves the war in Iraq, as well as health care and the economy, as focal points. Hill, a senior foreign policy adviser to Guiliani, said a premature withdrawal from Iraq could jeopardize the government and lead to a failed state. He said such an outcome could increase Iran’s influence in the region and further weaken the state as an entity of international law and norms, which is exactly what Iran wants. Hill said the Middle East will “spiral out of control” unless Arab regimes and Iran begin to act like nation-states subject to international rules.