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“Transactional structures are likely to change in response as tax rules change,” Knoll wrote in his essay. “These changes are likely to reduce additional tax revenues.”

Knoll’s study is the first comprehensive, nonpartisan mathematical analysis of the fiscal effects of increasing taxes on carried interests, which are the principal form of compensation in the $1 trillion private equity industry. It also has more significance than Knoll could have foreseen.

On Bloomberg.com, a report indicated that Knoll’s findings “signal an uphill battle for lawmakers trying to raise the money needed to pay for eliminating the alternative minimum tax [AMT] for about 23 million mostly middle-income households.”